Interview | Ilia Prodanov: The Black Sea has no alternative for exporting Bulgarian grain, and ships are already refusing routes

When drone strikes hit vessels in Romanian territorial waters on 14 and 15 October, Bulgaria's grain sector faced an immediate logistical problem. Ilia Prodanov, chairman of the National Association of Grain Producers, is now calling for a national contingency strategy.

Bulgaria is one of the European Union's significant grain exporters, and virtually all of it leaves through two Black Sea ports, making naval instability in the region a direct economic concern.

Ships turning back, ports growing quiet

Prodanov, who has led the association since April 2023, told Capital that until around mid-last week there were no signs of logistical trouble. Ships were arriving, and Bulgaria had no difficulty finding vessels willing to call at its ports. The attacks of 14 and 15 October changed that.

Port managers told Prodanov that two ships refused to proceed to the Varna Power Plant port and would not load. Two more vessels did not arrive at Varna's main port. Another two bound for Burgas were, as of 16 October, anchored to the south and had not raised anchor, though it remained uncertain whether they would eventually continue, Capital reports.

The association Prodanov leads represents 21 regional grain producer groups from across every region of Bulgaria, covering more than 2,600 farms and roughly 16 million decares of land, about half of all grain-growing area in the country.

Why there is no plan B

The ports of Burgas and Varna together handle more than 95 percent of Bulgarian grain exports. Overland routes exist in theory, but Prodanov says trucking grain to Greek ports is prohibitively expensive, slow, and lacks the capacity to absorb meaningful volumes. Danube river ports are another option in principle, but recent drought conditions have been blocking those routes, and their throughput capacity is limited.

Rail alternatives have been discussed previously, including at the European Commission level, where cross-border rail lines connecting Romania, Bulgaria and Greece were proposed as a way to ease grain transit. Capital reports that Prodanov says no progress has been made on that proposal.

Prodanov is calling for a government strategy that answers a specific question: what does Bulgaria do if Varna and Burgas are blocked for an extended period? That question, he says, does not yet have an answer.