Why fuel is getting more expensive in Bulgaria even when oil looks cheaper

Diesel prices in Bulgaria have hit historic highs and petrol is not far behind, even as global oil markets show signs of cooling. The gap between crude oil prices and what drivers pay at the pump comes down to geopolitics, refinery closures, and surging shipping costs.

What is happening at the pump right now

According to fuel price tracking site Fuelo, as cited by Club Z, a litre of diesel in Bulgaria reached 1.94 euros by mid-September, while petrol (A-95) stood at around 1.67 euros. Both fuels rose by roughly 9 to 10 euro cents in the first half of September alone. Industry representatives quoted by Standart warned that diesel could cross 2 euros per litre by the end of September, a price Bulgaria has never seen before. Standart also reports that the government is preparing support measures for transport and agriculture, with assurances that ordinary consumers will not be left without help.

Bulgaria is not alone. Standart reports that France reached record pump prices around the same period, with SP95-E10 petrol averaging above 2.10 euros per litre and diesel climbing past 2.30 euros. In France, that represents a jump of roughly 40 euro cents on petrol in under six months. Germany also hit a record for Super E10 fuel. The squeeze is a European-wide phenomenon.

Why cheaper crude does not mean cheaper fuel

Several overlapping forces are pushing refined fuel costs up even when raw crude prices appear less alarming.

First, there is a genuine shortage of diesel at the global level. Europe closed roughly ten refineries over recent years, cutting the continent's capacity to turn crude into road fuel, according to industry analysis cited by Standart. Capital reports on tightening EU petroleum inventories as a contributing structural factor.

Second, ongoing conflicts have driven up the cost of moving fuel by sea. Standart notes that shipping insurance rates have risen three to four times above normal levels, and cargo insurance as a share of load value has reportedly jumped from around 1.5 percent to roughly 6 percent. Those costs pass directly to pump prices. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, as noted in Standart's France coverage, have added further pressure.

Third, China has ramped up oil purchasing ahead of winter, tightening global supply at a time when European stocks are already thin, Standart reports. Damage to certain Russian refining capacity compounds the problem. The world has crude in the ground, but converting it into the diesel that trucks, buses, and heating systems run on has become expensive and slow.

Varna24 reports that senior political figures have warned the fuel crisis needs to be addressed now to avoid years of economic damage. Varna24 also notes political voices predicting diesel could exceed 4.50 leva per litre before the end of October.

For Bulgarians living abroad and planning a trip home, fuel and road transport costs will be noticeably higher than on previous visits. Bulgaria's pump prices, once among the lower in the EU, are approaching Western European levels.